Monitoring environnemental, Santé, Société et Pétrole en Equateur

Principal Investigators : L. Maurice (GET), L. Lucioparedes (EG-PRAS), MI. Perez (Petroecuador)

Participants : all the partners

Aims : To develop scenarios and tools for sustainable development and to favour the transfer and scientific valorisation of results

Methods : Multi-agent simulation validated in focus groups ; focus group of discussion about scenarios

Deliverables : Multi-agent system (MAS), report forming the basis of a definition for the creation of an agency for alert and assessment of socio-environmental liabilities in relation to oil activities

Risks : The synchronisation of the results of Task-2 and Task-4 will enable the realization of Task-6. The risk, however, is limited as reported by the exploratory data that allows realisation of the simulation platform.

T6.1. Scenarios for a sustainable development (GEODE- GET)

The totality of social, economic, geographic and environmental data collected by the project will enable the development of various scenarios of development for the attention of public actors.

Method: Development of a multi-agent system. The aim of the system will be the formalization and the integration of actions in view of the elaboration and implementation of projects or development policies enabled by the Ecuadorian legislation regarding oil industry.  Simulations will allow the use of MAS:

- as an exploration tool for sustainable development scenarios : what happens when an element or an actor is added or changed in the model?

- as a synthesis tool : the formalisation will allow the production of synthetic indicators of vulnerability on one or several study cases, enabling comparisons.

- as an assistant support for negotiation between politics and industry: the modeling support will facilitate exchange between actors and proposed solutions.

Scenarios will be presented to institutional actors in focus groups in order to instigate further discussion.

Risks: the realisation of the platform and model depends on the social analysis conducted and its expertise in scenario development. In view of team coordination and implication in the construction of the model, a meta-model or formalised model will be developed using UML (Unified Modeling Language) to enhance its legibility to different scientific specialisms and to avoid all ambiguity in model conception. This meta-model or formalised model will facilitate communication between modelers and specialists in its development and in the development of the scenarios. Meta-model conception will begin at the outset of the project and will be adjusted throughout until it is finalised. It will provide a solid base for the project as well as relevant results from the scientific methodology conducted in MONOIL. 

T6.2. Tools proposed for use in monitoring and alert in relation with contamination due to oil activities (all the partners)

Environmental monitoring tools will be transferred to universities, industrial and public actors at the end of the project: educational training will be planned before project end. On a political and institutional level, results transfer will enable the achievement of an integrated system for prevention, alert and risk assessment for environmental contamination, health and social risk. The working team begun and strengthened during the project will be succeeded by the creation of a National Observatory for results promotion with the aim of fostering sustainable development in oil countries. During the MONOIL project, only the organisational basis of the proposed observatory will be developed.

© S.Becerra Corazones en la Amazonia